Duke is our pick to win a record 6th straight ACC title. They only lose two contributors from last year's Sweet 16 team, Casey Sanders (4.8 PTS, 5.3 RBS) and leading scorer, Dahntay Jones (15.6 PTS, 5.3 RBS). But they return 4 starters with, arguably, the two best wing guards in the league in JJ Redick and Daniel Ewing.
The first glance at the schedule is a bit disappointing. The usually talented St. Johns and Georgetown programs are expected to be rather weak this year. However, as Duke knows from last year, both teams will still be a challenge. Michigan State, on December 3, will be Duke's first test of the season after a surprisingly weak Great Alaska Shootout. Their next test is a December 20 match up with a T.J. Ford-less Texas squad at Madison Square Garden and it is quite possible that they could go into the new year and the ACC season 10-0.
The Blue Devils are loaded at almost every position this season, but most noticeably at the guard spot. Chris Duhon (9.2 PTS, 6.5 ASTS, 3.2 RBS) returns for his senior year as Duke's captain and leader. It is no secret that Duhon struggled last year in his new role, but optimists look at it as just a transition year from a role player to a leader, and expect to see Duhon come into the season refreshed and ready to lead Duke to a second championship in 4 years. Backing up Duhon will be sophomore Sean Dockery (3.3 PTS, 1 STL, 1.1 ASTS), who appears to have some of the quickest hands in college basketball and can really be a defensive pest when he puts his mind to it. Dockery will definitely see more than the 10 minutes a game he saw last year and an improvement in his offensive decision-making will only increase those minutes as the year goes on. The 2-guard will be filled by Duke's returning leading scorers, sophomore JJ Redick (14.5 PTS, 2.4 RBS, 2 ASTS) and junior Daniel Ewing (12 PTS, 3.2 RBS, 1.3 ASTS). The most interesting storyline for this year's team revolves around Redick and Ewing. Will Krzyzewski start both Redick and Ewing, or will he choose to have one as a spark off the bench? Either way, expect to see both getting 25+ minutes a game. Redick is the most dangerous shooter in the country & isn't afraid to shoot from 30 feet out as he showed many times as a freshman, but most memorably against N.C. State in the ACC Championship game where he exploded for 30 points with 5 three-pointers and 11 of 12 free throws. Ewing also had a break out ACC tourney and was named the tournament MVP after scoring 62 points in three games.
Again, Duke will be loaded in the frontcourt with two sophomores and a freshman leading the group. Shavlik Randolph (7.4 PTS, 3.9 RBS in 13 minutes per game) and Shelden Williams (8.2 PTS, 5.8 RBS), both sophomores, had their fair share of dominating nights, however, they dominated in very different ways. Shav, in only 13 minutes per game, put up big numbers on the offensive end at the beginning of the season, be it against a lower level of competition. He seems to have an uncanny knack for the basketball & ending up in the right place at the right time. Rumor has it that he has gained a good amount of muscle in the off-season; to go along with his advanced offensive skills. However, Shav struggled on the defensive end and that is where he will earn his playing time. He had surgery on his hip, which was bothering him all season, and should be ready for the start of practice, October 17. Where Shavlik struggled, Shelden excelled. Shelden showed great timing blocking shots and was a physical presence on the defensive end, which is why he was on the floor much more his freshman season than Shavlik. However, at times, he looked lost on the offensive end. By the end of the year he had gained much more confidence on the offensive end, showing a consistent 15-foot jump shot and some solid post moves. With the work done in the off-season on his low post footwork and some added time in the weight room, Williams should be ready for a strong sophomore campaign as Dukes starting center.
Forming a solid supporting cast will be sophomores Michael Thompson and Lee Melchionni. The two least heralded members of the 6-member freshman class each showed their value to the team last year. Melchionni almost single handedly brought Duke back against Florida State, where he scored 8 points in seven minutes. His heart, desire, and hustle will surely get him extended minutes this year. Thompson's best game was a game where he didn't even score, but helped contain Central Michigan's Chris Kamen in the NCAA tournament. It is well known that Thompson struggled last year. He attended Pete Newell's big man camp this summer and has slimmed down a bit from his freshman weight. He should be a solid back up to Williams this year.
And let's not forget Duke's heralded freshman Luol Deng, who was ranked the consensus #2 high school senior behind Lebron James. Listed at 6-8" 220 lbs, many close to the Duke program are saying that he is the best player on the team, even before his freshman season has begun. Deng averaged 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists as a senior at Blair Academy (NJ), where he played all 5 positions for his team. Deng is slotted to play the small forward position, but do not be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court or post up down low.
With the inclusion of Deng, Duke again will have the ability to start a three guard lineup (Duhon, Ewing, Redick), which is what most Duke fans are now accustomed to, or play a more tradition lineup with Deng taking the place of Redick or Ewing (Randolph and Williams down low). Krzyzewski will have the opportunity to either throw Deng into the starting lineup from day one, and leaving Ewing, Redick or Randolph on the bench (this just shows how versatile Deng is, he can replace at least 3 of the 5 positions) or taking some of the pressure off and having him come off the bench. My guess is you see Krzyzewski go "small" and start Deng at the big forward position along with Duhon, Redick, Ewing and Williams.
Duke will have 6 players who are capable of scoring 20 points on any given night, which makes them very hard to prepare for, but also shows that roles have not been established on this current team. It will be interesting to see how this Duke team develops, who emerges as consistent scorers, and if those scorers also become the leaders that Duke needs to make it back to the Final Four.