Life After Deng - Part II (2004-2005)

In 1999, Duke went to the Final Four & competed in the national championship game, which they lost to Connecticut. In 2004, Duke went to the Final Four & lost to Connecticut in the national semifinals. Following the loss to UConn in 1999 the Duke basketball program went through an upheaval which many predicted would lead to the demise of the dominance that Duke had experienced over the ACC in recent years. Trajan Langdon was lost to grauation in 1999, Elton Brand was leaving for the NBA after his sophomore season, William Avery decided to follow Brand to the NBA, freshman Corey Maggette also decided to enter his name into the NBA draft, & Chris Burgess decided to transfer out of the Duke program. In fact, 6 of the top 9 players from the 1999 Duke team would not be returning for the 1999-2000 season. The only returning players were Shane Battier, Chris Carrawell, & Nate James, all of whom had been mere role players for the 1999 team. A local sports talk radio personality began to predict the demise of the Duke basketball program & predicted that the balance of power in the ACC was shifting & that Duke would be slipping down to the middle of the pack of the ACC starting with the 99-00 season. Therefore, it brought a smile to my face when listening to the same sports talk radio personality on the day that the news broke concerning Luol Deng's decision to enter the NBA draft. The same guy who had predicted Duke's demise following the defections in 1999, was now predicting Duke to finish 6th in the ACC during the 2004-2005 season should Duke recruit Shaun Livingston follow Deng & enter his name into the NBA draft.

Although most who are reading this article are very familiar with what happened following the defections of 1999, let me refresh your memories, as well as inform those who were not aware. The 1999-2000 Duke team which had lost 6 of their to 9 players & returned only 3 role players, won the ACC Regular Season Championship with a 15-1 record, won the ACC Tournament Championship, entered the NCAA Tournament ranked #1 in the country, lost in the Sweet 16, & ended the season with a 29-5 overall record, in spite of beginning the season 0-2. All of the above was accomplished using basically a 6-man rotation, which included the 3 role players previously mentioned, as well as 3 freshmen (Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, & Mike Dunleavy).

Granted there are many differences between the situation which occurred in 99 compared to the current situation. The rest of the ACC is definitely much stronger than it was during the 2000 season. However, Duke should also be in much better shape regarding the number of experienced players returning than in 2000. While the 2000 team returned only 3 experienced ACC players, the 04-05 Duke team returns 5 experienced ACC players. Also, without Livingston, the 04-05 Duke team will have fewer impact freshmen than in 2000. The 99-00 Duke team received All-ACC performances from Battier & Carrawell, while the 04-05 team returns three players who are All-ACC caliber (Shelden Williams, Daniel Ewing, JJ Redick). In summary, there are definitely some distinct differences in the situations between the 99-00 team & the 04-05 team. However, there are also many similarities, which should give Duke fans hope that things may not be as bad in 04-05 as many are predicting.

In looking at the prospects for Duke basketball in 2004-2005 without Deng & Livingston, the numbers are the first thing that comes immediately to mind. Duke would enter the season with only 8 scholarship players. Therefore, depth would be a major concern, particularly in the frontcourt. Shavlik Randolph & Shelden Williams would be the only players who are taller than 6-7 & their tendency to get into foul trouble would be particularly troubling, but is even more troubling considering the lack of interior depth. Consistency of performance would be another concern, as neither Williams or Randolph have shown much degree of consistency throughout their 2 years at Duke. Hopefully, the experience factor will kick in for both of these players & they will be able to learn how to avoid getting themselves into foul trouble, as well as being able to play effectively when they are in foul trouble. Williams has shown the capability to be dominate on both ends of the floor, as times. If he is able to demonstrate that dominance on a consistent basis, he could be the best big man in the ACC & may compete for ACC Player of the Year honors. Randolph's inconsistency has befuddled many Duke fans during his 2-year career. At times, he shows the enormous potential which made him a top 10 recruit in his high school class. Other times, he looks confused & tenative. It should be encouraging to Duke fans that he showed signs of finally "getting it" during the last few weeks of his sophomore season. If he becomes more consistent & learns how to stay out of foul trouble, he could join Williams to form the most devastating 1-2 frontcourt duo in the country. Freshman David McClure will likely be called upon to provide some frontcourt depth for the Blue Devils in 04-05. Although some consider him to be undersized (6-6) to defend the post, he has played in the post for most of his high school career & during the Glaxo Tournament in Raleigh in December demonstrated his ability to guard bigger players when he shutdown 6-9 Cedric Simmons, who will be playing at NC State this season.

The biggest question mark for the Duke backcourt (remember that we are assuming that Livingston is not at Duke) is whether Sean Dockery is ready to step into the starting lineup as the primary ballhandler & point guard. Dockery has shown flashes of being an effective point guard. He is definitely a good enough ballhandler, he has the ability to penetrate & score, & he is an excellent on-the-ball defender. However, the biggest question seems to be his very suspect perimeter shot. However, as Chris Duhon has demonstrated the last 2 years, it is not necessary to have a consistent outside shot in order to be an effective ACC point guard. The improvement in Dockery's game from his freshman to sophomore season gives Duke fans hope that he will be up to the challenge that will be presented to him in directing the Blue Devil offense during the 04-05 season. As far as the rest of the backcourt, there is very little to be concerned about for Duke fans. Redick & Ewing return to form one of the more devastating perimeter shooting combos in the country. Ewing has also shown the ability to slash & score & should be able to help out with some of the ballhandling duties. Freshman Demarcus Nelson has the type of versatility that he should be able to help with ballhandling duties, as well as provide some help on the boards. Nelson also has the type of scoring ability that may provide a nice spark off the bench for the Blue Devils.

Perhaps the most important factor in determing the success of the 04-05 edition of Duke basketball is Coach K. Throughout his career at Duke Coach K has shown that when things are looking their worst & people are counting Duke out, he always has found a way to come up with his best coaching efforts. In addition to the 2000 season discussed above, perhaps his best coaching effort was in 1996. Coming off the 1995 season in which he had taken a leave of absence because of back troubles, he inherited a team which had gone 2-14 in the ACC during the previous season & had also lost it's top 3 scorers (Cherokee Parks & Eric Meeks to graduation & Trajan Langdon to knee injury). The only addition to the 96 team was freshman Taymon Domzalski. Coach K led that 96 team back into the NCAA Tournament & led them to an 8-8 ACC record. It seems that many simply do not learn from the past. No team that is led by Coach K can ever be counted out.

Ideally, Deng will decide to return to Duke & Livingston will decide to cast his lot with the Blue Devils, rather than the NBA. Should those two names be on the Duke roster next season, pencil Duke in as one of the favorites to win the national championship next season. However, should both decide to take their talents to the next level, don't shed any tears for the Blue Devils. It would be my guess that a certain Raleigh sports talk radio personality will be having to eat his words, yet again, when the 2004-2005 season concludes.